Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer goals from open-play situations than at this stage last season.

A major talking point of the EPL season so far has been the decline of scoring in open play and how teams have been scoring more from set-plays instead.

Comparing scoring methods to matchday 11 the prior season, we note 39 fewer goals in open play and 26 more from set-plays and penalties, giving us 13 less altogether.

If we look at the bigger picture, the number of shots sides are producing show an incredible 370 fewer in open play than this time previously.

Even with the significant rise in dead-ball scores, we've actually seen a mere two extra shots produced from these situations outside of penalties, showing how effective teams are at finding ways to convert from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Show the Tale

301 total goals notched in 110 matches up to now works out at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for the whole season would be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely under 200 goals coming in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is heading to be the lowest for 16 seasons, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign additionally represents the unique EPL season to witness goals scored at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Bear the Most Responsibility?

Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced the most significant decline, scoring just four in 11 matches, 10 fewer than this point last season.

Excluding Wolves, the Premier League's fall in open play goals is largely a London phenomenon, with half of the city's seven teams scoring at least five fewer goals from open play than the previous year.

Honestly, this is mainly because them scoring many goals at the start of last season rather than their genuine struggle to score in open-play this campaign.

At the same time City have seen the biggest increase, with almost every one of their 23 scores so far arriving in open play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

We've compared clubs that came up with the relegated sides they replaced. Sunderland Sunderland have scored an additional three scores in open-play than Southampton did in their first 11 games on their way to relegation last season.

Regarding scoring from dead-ball situations (excluding penalties), the Gunners and the Blues have recorded the most significant jump, with both sides replacing the five less goals that they've produced in open-play with identical figures from dead-ball situations.

Man United have scored double the number goals from set-pieces as they managed in the first 11 matches last season before Ruben Amorim took over, while the Black Cats additionally prove more successful at netting than the similar-colored team they superseded.

Man City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-pieces, since they've recorded a reduction of three than the previous campaign, similar to the Reds, even if this could be because of the tactical shift they're working to install.

General Tendencies

Six teams – the Gunners, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – are this term's primary examples by scoring fewer scores from open-play and additional from set-plays, while City represent the only side to buck the trend to date by achieving the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to observe if sides continue to place such emphasis on set-plays as the season goes on or if they regain their all-round creativity and start netting increased totals in open-play too.

Sara Moore
Sara Moore

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