How The Strange Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.
On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.
However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.
Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge ā it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each bet ā overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower ā has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations ā and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal season!
Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record
Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.
What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality ā with other teams are a cautionary tale ā because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.
The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of peers.
Still
