Dutch Polls: Key Players and Central Topics in Snap Vote
Citizens in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most conservative government in modern history with a more centrist and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Its Significance
Snap general elections were called after the breakdown of the previous administration in June, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the premier position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic commentator who has required security detail for twenty years, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his allies declined to adopt a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syrian refugees.
Although backing of the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political parties have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are predicted to gain representation, but none is expected to secure above approximately 20% of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
There are 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an approved list of candidates in a country-wide district: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the traditional governing groups from the centre-right and left, whose share of the vote has shrunk from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to drop as many as eight of the thirty-seven mandates it won in 2023. It proposes, among other measures, a complete freeze on asylum, Ukrainian men to be returned, the army to combat "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the start of the millennium, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its youthful rising star, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a electoral platform highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between 40,000 and 60,000 people annually in its platform.
Three additional groups appear set to be important players in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is on course to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking youthful head, with a campaign focused on housing (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its leader, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, blamed for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and less welfare.
The populist, strictly rightwing JA21 is a spin-off from another far-right party – the previously successful, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to lose out, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The primary concerns so far have been migration policy, with several – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the perennial Dutch problem of accommodation (the country is lacking 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the head of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Multiple options look possible, typically including a mix of parties from moderate left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and several minor groups possibly incorporating JA21.
