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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.